The signals from the macroeconomics have affected the housing market and suppressed inflationary expectations in this market. Surveys show that in the wake of the stability and decline in currency rates, the housing market in Tehran and its suburbs has declined and the thirst for investment demand has decreased.
According to the informants, the actors in the real estate market received the provided vision of the economic conditions and stopped the transactions. The general perception of the housing market is that non-economic risks have decreased at the current stage, and this can lead to stabilization of the real estate market.
The housing market is usually influenced by both external and internal factors. Internal factors include fluctuations in land prices, rates for building materials, municipal taxes, and wage rates. External factors are related to the impact of parallel markets on the housing market, and one of its most important indicators is the changes in currency rates. In recent weeks, the price of the coin has begun to fall.
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A group of factors, including communication with Saudi Arabia, an agreement with Russia to build the Rasht-Astara railway, a good level of relations with China, the visit of the King of Oman to Iran, a promise to release the withheld funds, only one item. Of which $11 billion is from Iraq, and reports indicate a relative improvement in the country’s economic prospects.
On the other hand, liquidity growth as a factor fueling inflation decreased by 9%. The government’s plan to introduce a tax on vacant homes from September 15 this year and the tax on capital gains which is currently being reviewed in Parliament are also factors that can help provide housing and regulate this market. The decline in car prices and the collapse of the stock market after the growth in recent months are other signs that sent a message of stability to the housing market.
Real estate brokers say prices quoted in oversupplied areas of Tehran have fallen by 10%. The drop in prices in neighboring cities, including Pardes, amounts to more than 20%. In the cities of Barrand and Hashtag, according to real estate consultants, prices have fallen. Of course, the market faces two problems: the lack of small files and the oversupply of large units, which has caused a lower rate of price decline in small apartments than in large units.
Experts believe that the continued stability of the housing market depends on maintaining and improving economic indicators. If inflation is curbed, liquidity mainly intended for housing purchases, currency and gold to maintain real estate value can enter productive sectors and reduce inflationary expectations in the real estate market.
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